As I sit back and wonder what every candidate brings. ECU brings a rabid fan base and little to no market plus their basketball program down right stinks. UCF has ok football, their basketball program is fairly decent and may be improving but they just might be facing sanctions. Central Florida's biggest upside is the Orlando DMA which features Cocoa Beach, Titusville, and Daytona Beach. There are a plethora of Northeast "transplants: and "snowbirds" living along the "Space Coast" that would love to watch Big East football. Houston brings a massive DMA a decent football program and a hoops program with decent history. Memphis brings an OK DMA, an OK football program-last few years been really bad though, a Brand name in basketball. Villanova's football team is a powerhouse in D-1 FCS but only averages a little over 9k a game. There are possible expansion plans for PCL Park that could elevate its stadium to a capacity of 30K seats. Villanova is located inside the massive Philadelphia DMA, which includes SW New Jersey and northern parts of Delaware.
Judging by ESPN's initial offer-130M for all 17 programs, 99M for football schools(11M is broke down like this: 7.15M for football, 3.85M for basketball for each program)- this means that the Big East will ask the other Network bidders what the projections will be if we stayed at 9/17 or a possible 12/20.
Is inventory really worth as much as some people say it is. I really don't know. For example a 9th conference game takes away from big time out of conference games. Schools are still going to play 2 gimmie games and then 1 big OOC game.
Now check this out;
going to the 76% ratio from the 130M offered from ESPN
If offered 150M by another Network this is what we could be looking at:
Football Schools 114M= 12.67M Per School
Basketball Schools36M= 4.5M Per School
Football= 8.17M
Basketball = 4.5M
PS. This is only in the 9/17 alignment.
OK, the deal my not be 150M because it may actually be higher or not this high. I'm laying out the numbers just so everyone could see what the expansion candidates need to bring to the table. At this point you have to ask yourself a question, with the possibility of 20 basketball teams is it really worth making that 3.85M-4.5M payout in basketball to just draw even in football. If a collective group only adds 30M to the pot, then they aren't worth adding for all sports.
There is a huge but in all of this and that's the football only option. In the 150M TV deal a collective group of 3 would only need to bring in at least 24.5M. With a 9th game and championship game, the football side of things might be able to break even.
At this point ECU and Villanova would be the logical choices for the football only option. But who would the 3rd school be. Could that be a possible All Sports School for a 12/18 hybrid. Could we then look at more of a basketball oriented school like a Memphis or a school with a decent basketball history like Houston. I do think Memphis as an all sports option brings the most to the table and doesn't cut basketball revenue at all-in fact they may add to the basketball side of things. But they do hurt our BCS ratings and they may be the thing that ultimately keeps a Memphis out.
The biggest problem in all of this isn't that its hard enough to figure out what school to bring in. But what combo of schools to add if 12 is really the ultimate option on the table right now.
There may be a wildcard in BYU, but I really don't think that they are on the table.But if there is a candidate that is the total package, its BYU.
Personally I think ECU brings the most to the table as a football only option and the Big East stays at 10/17. Villanova just might be the 2nd best option.
At the end of the day, I just think we're better off staying at 9/17 until someone proves to me that the Big East will make more money in Football, as well as in Basketball. And right now, I'm just not seeing it. Plus if inventory and a championship game adds more money to the pie it'll hurt the basketball money so the schools I'd add would be Villanova, Memphis, and ECU(football only) for a 12/18 hybrid and be done with it.
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